| 摘要: |
| 天水位于青藏高原东北部的副热带北部边缘，受大陆性季风气候的影响，生态环境脆弱，是研究全球变化区域响应的理想之地。基于天水市1901—2016年的月平均气温资料，运用一元线性回归、5年滑动平均和Mann-Kendall非参数检验等方法分析了过去116年来天水市气温在不同尺度上的变化特征及突变节点。结果表明：天水市1901—2016年气温总体呈上升趋势，气候倾向率为0.058℃∙(10a) −1。各季节均表现出增温趋势，春季、夏季、秋季和冬季的线性倾向率分别为0.084℃∙(10a) −1、0.019℃∙(10a) −1、0.022℃∙(10a) −1、0.102℃∙(10a) −1。最冷月份1月及最热月份7月同样表现出增温趋势，线性倾向率依次为0.085℃∙(10a) −1、0.038℃∙(10a) −1。年平均气温在1923年和1993年发生了两次突变。春季和秋季突变年与年平均气温基本一致，夏季气温突变存在超前和滞后现象，冬季突变时间为1978年。最冷月份1月平均气温在1977年发生突变，最热月份7月平均气温突变年份集中在2000年之后。总体而言，天水市过去一百多年来，气温呈上升趋势与全球变暖大背景一致。 |
| 关键词: 气温 特征分析 突变分析 天水市 |
| DOI：10.7515/JEE182076 |
| CSTR： |
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| 基金项目:陕西省教育厅重点实验室科研计划项目（17JS005）；陕西省自然科学基础研究计划项目（2018JQ4022，2019JM-208）；黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室开放基金项目（SKLLQG1801）；陕西省普通高校第二批青年杰出人才支持计划 |
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| Features of temperature variations in Tianshui during the past 116 years |
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LIU Na, HU Yafei, BAO Guang
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1. Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Disaster Monitoring and Mechanism Simulation, School of Geography and Environment, Baoji University of Arts and Sciences, Baoji 721013, China
2. State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi’an 710061, China
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| Abstract: |
| Background, aim, and scope The change of regional environment is related to the well-being of human beings. The study of regional response characteristics of global change could help reveal the background and laws of variations in the climatic elements at the regional scale. Tianshui is located on the northern edge of the subtropical zone in the northeastern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. It is an ideal place to study the regional temperature response of global warming. Due to the continental monsoon climate, Tianshui has a fragile ecological environment. Therefore, the characteristics of temperature changes in the northwestern monsoon region obtained from this study have certain regional representation and indicative significance. Materials and methods Based on the monthly average temperature data of Tianshui from 1901 to 2016, using the linear regression, 5-year moving average and Mann-Kendall non-parametric test, the variation characteristics of Tianshui temperature on different scales during the past 116 years were analyzed. Results The annual average temperature in Tianshui was generally rising from 1901 to 2016, with a tendency rate 0.058℃· (10a) −1. The four seasons showed warming trends and the increasing rates in spring, summer, autumn and winter were 0.084℃· (10a) −1, 0.019℃· (10a) −1, 0.022℃· (10a) −1, 0.102℃· (10a) −1. The trend of warming occurred in the coldest month (January) and the hottest month (July), and the linear tendency rates were 0.085℃· (10a) −1 and 0.038℃· (10a) −1. The abrupt years of annual average temperature occurred in 1923 and 1993. The similar abrupt years appeared in both spring and autumn average temperature. The summer temperature mutations were advanced and lagged, and the winter temperature mutation year occurred in 1978. For the coldest month in January, the average temperature was abruptly changed in 1977, and that of the hottest month in July was concentrated in the 2000s period. Discussion Global climate change has a wide-ranging impact on the natural environment and human society. The influence of rising temperature is one of the main manifestations. The analysis of temperature variation characteristics on the regional scale could help to cope with the adverse effects of climate change and enhance adaptability. Conclusions The temperature of annual, seasonal and monthly scales of the Tianshui region generally showed an upward trend from 1901 to 2016, and there were significant mutation signals, which were consistent with the background of global warming. Recommendations and perspectives The variations of climate elements are closely related to the coordinated development of regional natural environment and human society. Temperature as an important climatic factor, it is necessary to reveal its long-term features that will help to reduce the risk of climate disasters and enhance regional defense against the background of global warming. |
| Key words: temperature characteristic analysis mutation analysis Tianshui |
