| 摘要: |
| 流域径流变化及其影响因素的研究对流域水资源的可持续开发利用以及改善流域的生态环境具有重要意义。以大靖河流域1956—2016年水文气象数据为基础，分析了近61 a来大靖河径流的年内、年际变化特征，并定量评估了气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的影响。结果表明：大靖河径流年内分配不均，主要集中在7—10月，占全年径流的60.98%；1956年以来大靖河径流以1.1×105 m3∙a−1的速率递减，Hurst指数为0.69，表明大靖河径流在未来一段时间将继续呈递减趋势；大靖河径流存在4个震荡周期，分别为2—5 a、8—13 a、17—24 a及35—45 a左右，降水的震荡周期（8—13 a、17—24 a及35—47 a）与径流周期具有较好的一致性；气候变化对大靖河径流减少的贡献率为4.7%，人类活动的贡献率为95.3%，这可能与研究区土地利用方式变化有关。 |
| 关键词: 径流 气候变化 人类活动 大靖河 |
| DOI：10.7515/JEE192034 |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金（41601190） |
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| The variation characteristics of runoff in Dajing River and its response to climate change and human activities |
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SUN Hongyue, JIA Feifei, LI Xin, SUN Cuiyang
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School of Geography, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, China
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| Abstract: |
| Background, aim, and scope In recent years, with global climate change and the intensification of human activities, the runoff of many rivers has decreased. This not only aggravates the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources, but also brings many ecological and environmental problems. Dajing River, located in the southeast of Gulang County, Gansu Province, is a tributary of the Shiyang River system. This study analyzes the runoff variation characteristics and its influencing factors of Dajing River, which is of great significance to the sustainable development of the basin. Materials and methods Based on the hydrological and meteorological data from 1956 to 2016 in the Dajing River Basin, we first analyzed the annual and interannual characteristics of runoff variation in Dajing River using R/S analysis, Morlet wavelet analysis, sliding correlation method, cumulative anomaly method, and Mann-Kendall mutation test method. Then we quantitatively evaluated the effect of climate and human activities on the runoff using the method of cumulant slope change rate. Results The Dajing River runoff is unevenly distributed within a year. The peak period of the runoff is from July to October, accounting for 60.98% of the total amount of the annual runoff; since 1956, the Dajing River runoff has decreased at a rate of 1.1×105 m3 per year, and the Hurst index is 0.69, indicating that the Dajing River runoff will continue to decrease trend in future days. There are four oscillation periods in the Dajing River runoff, 2—5 a, 8—13 a, 17—24 a and 35—45 a, respectively, which are consistent with the oscillation period of precipitation (8—13 a, 17—24 a and 35—47 a). Discussion The year of abrupt change of Dajing River runoff is 2004. The whole runoff series is divided into two stages according to the abrupt change year. Compared with the base period, the runoff in the variation period has decreased, while the precipitation and evaporation have increased. Climate change and human activities are the main factors leading to the runoff change of Dajing River. The contribution rates of climate change and human activities to runoff change are 4.7% and 95.3% respectively. Conclusions The Dajing River runoff will continue to decline in the future. Through a periodic analysis, we found a relatively consistent periodic change rule between the runoff and the precipitation. However, even though the Dajing River runoff shows a positive response to precipitation and temperature, human activities still play a leading role in the reduction of the Dajing River runoff. Recommendations and perspectives The results from analyses of the characteristics of the Dajing River runoff and its influencing factors may help us understand more about the law of runoff variation in the Dajing River, as well as may play an important role in rationally allocating water resources in this area and predicting future runoff changes. |
| Key words: runoff climate change human activity Dajing River |
