| 摘要: |
| 从人均和国别责任的角度，探讨了全球一次能源消费的地区不均衡性及其对全球变暖的贡献。在理想状态下，分两种发展情景对未来世界能源消费量进行了预估。计算了未来不同情境下世界一次能源消费量的热值与功率，并与引起地表气候变化的太阳辐射变化量进行了比较。结果表明：在两种情境下，未来世界能源消费均会继续增长；在未来几十年人类一次能源消费释热引起的辐射强迫将逐渐超过到达地表的太阳辐射在十年尺度的变化量；在能源消费总量增加的前提下，仅改变能源消费结构，无法降低能源消费对大气的直接加热作用。 |
| 关键词: 一次能源消费 全球变暖 人均责任 区域差异 |
| DOI：10.7515/JEE201304003 |
| CSTR： |
| 分类号:P512.2 |
| 基金项目:2013-05-30 |
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| The contribution of primary energy consumption to global warming: regional difference and the trend |
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YU Xue-feng1,2, ZENG Yi3
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1.State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi′an 710075, China; 2.Xi′an Accelerator Mass Spectrometry Center，Shaanxi Province Key Laboratory of Accelerator Mass Spectrometry Technology and Application, Xi′an 710061, China; 3.Sichuan Radiation Environment Managing and Monitoring Central Station, Chengdu 610031, China
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| Abstract: |
| In this paper, we discussed the regional difference of world primary energy consumption(WPEC) and its contribution to global warming, in terms of per capita and national responsibility. Assuming that the trend of world primary energy consumptionis under ideal conditions, we made the outlooks of the future energy consumption in the world for two scenes of development. We also calculated the heat release and its power in these two scenes, and made the comparison with the variation of the solar irradiation reached to the earth surface (△TSI). Our results show that: (1) the world primary energy consumption will be continuously increasing in both ideal scenes; (2) the power of the heat release caused by energy consumption will be outstripping that of △TSI reaching to the earth surface in the future; (3) it is impossible for decreasing the heat release of energy consumption to change the structure of the energy consumption under the trend of increasing primary energy consumption in the future. |
| Key words: primary energy consumption global warming per capita regional difference |
