| 引用本文: | 刘引鸽，黄雪，慕建利，包江川，杨雨欣，邓小丽，刘敏茹.2022.基于CMIP5模式数据渭河流域近200年来径流变化[J].地球环境学报,13(2):196-207 |
| LIU Yinge, HUANG Xue, MU Jianli, BAO Jiangchuan, YANG Yuxin, DENG Xiaoli, LIU Minru.2022.Runoff changes in the Weihe River basin over the past 200 years based on CMIP5 model data[J].Journal of Earth Environment,13(2):196-207 |
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| 基于CMIP5模式数据渭河流域近200年来径流变化 |
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刘引鸽，黄雪，慕建利，包江川，杨雨欣，邓小丽，刘敏茹
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1.宝鸡文理学院 地理与环境学院，陕西省灾害监测与机理模拟重点实验室，宝鸡 721013
2.中国气象局公共气象服务中心，北京 100081
3.西安市气象局，西安 710016
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| 摘要: |
| 基于CMIP5模式输出的1850—2005年渭河流域17个站点的径流模数数据，采用线性回归、变差系数、小波分析及Mann-Kendall检验方法，分析了渭河流域径流时空变化特征，探讨了径流变化的原因。结果表明：渭河流域径流的空间分布为西南高东北低，最大值位于渭源、武山区域，最小值位于下游支流的洛河区域。年径流表现出波动变化，1850—1896年、1929—1939年、1968—1984年径流呈上升趋势，1896—1929年、1939—1968年、1984—2005年呈下降趋势，年平均径流趋势率为−0.004 L∙(km2∙s) −1∙(10a) −1。春、夏、秋、冬径流趋势率分别为−0.002 L∙(km2·s) −1∙(10a) −1、0.022 L∙(km2∙s) −1∙(10a) −1、−0.033 L∙(km2∙s) −1∙(10a) −1、−0.004 L∙(km2∙s) −1∙(10a) −1。渭河流域支流径流变率较大，干流变率较小，支流径流变率依次为北洛河＞石川河＞泾河＞漆水河＞千河＞葫芦河＞散渡河。年平均径流在1871年、1908年、1984年、1990年发生突变，而且具有4—6 a，8—10 a，15—20 a，25—35 a，85—95 a，110—120 a的显著周期。相关分析表明：气温、蒸发量与径流为反相关，降水与径流为正相关，土地利用及人类活动对径流也有一定影响。这些研究为认识过去长时期径流变化规律，以及渭河流域水生态环境管理提供了依据，对比较不同资料径流研究也提供了参考。 |
| 关键词: 渭河流域 CMIP5模式数据 径流 近200年 时空特征 |
| DOI：10.7515/JEE212027 |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（41771048）；陕西省重点研发计划项目（2022SF-364） |
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| Runoff changes in the Weihe River basin over the past 200 years based on CMIP5 model data |
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LIU Yinge, HUANG Xue, MU Jianli, BAO Jiangchuan, YANG Yuxin, DENG Xiaoli, LIU Minru
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1. College of Geographic & Environmental Sciences, Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Disaster Monitoring & Mechanism Simulation, Baoji University of Arts and Sciences, Baoji 721013, China
2. Public Meteorological Service Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
3. Xi’an Meteorological Bureau, Xi’an 710016, China
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| Abstract: |
| Background, aim, and scope Changes in river runoff have an important impact on the evolution of natural ecosystems and human social production activities. Runoff is one of the main elements of the hydrological cycle, and the changes in runoff respond to climate and human activities. With global changes, the impact of human activities on river runoff has intensified, and the problem of the uneven spatial and temporal distribution of regional water resources has become more prominent. Global climate models provide data to support the study of past changes and future simulation predictions of climate elements. The Weihe River basin is the largest tributary of the Yellow River. The hydrological cycle has undergone tremendous changes, which have a great impact on regional water resources at the same time. Therefore, based on the output data of the CMIP5 model, this study analyzed the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the Weihe River basin in the past 200 years and discussed the factors affecting the change of runoff. This study is of great significance for understanding the patterns of runoff variation in the past and for managing water resources at present and in the future. Materials and methods Based on the runoff, precipitation, temperature, and evaporation data output from the CMIP5 model during the period of 1850—2005 from 17 meteorological stations in the Weihe River basin, the methods including linear regression, coefficient of variation, wavelet analysis, Mann-Kendall test, and correlation analysis were used to analyze the chronological change trend, cycle and mutation characteristics of runoff and to explore the influencing factors of runoff changes. Results The results showed that the spatial distribution of runoff in the Weihe River basin was high in the southwest and low in the northeast. The maximum runoff was located in the Weiyuan and Wushan regions, and the minimum runoff was located in the Luohe River region of its downstream tributaries. The runoff showed an upward trend from 1850 to 1896, 1929 to 1939, and 1968 to 1984, and a downward trend from 1896 to 1929, 1939 to 1968, and 1984 to 2005. The average trend rate of the annual runoff was −0.004 L·(km2·s) −1·(10a) −1. The runoff trend rates were −0.002 L·(km2·s) −1·(10a) −1, 0.022 L·(km2·s) −1·(10a) −1, −0.033 L·(km2·s) −1·(10a) −1, and −0.004 L·(km2·s) −1·(10a) −1 for spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. The runoff variability of each tributary basin from high to low is Beiluo River>Shichuan River>Jinghe River>Qishui River>Qianhe River>Hulu River>Sandu River. The annual average runoff changed abruptly in 1871, 1908, 1984, and 1990, with significant cycles of 4—6 a, 8—10 a,15—20 a, 25—35 a, 85—95 a, and 110—120 a. Temperature, evaporation, and runoff were inversely correlated, while precipitation and runoff were positively correlated. Discussion The main reason for the decrease of runoff in recent decades was the increase of evaporation due to the increased temperature, which led to a decrease of runoff. At the same time, the decrease of precipitation also intensified the decrease of runoff. The increase of summer runoff was closely related to the increase of summer precipitation. Changes in the lower ground surface have increased due to intensified human activities, resulting in a decrease of the confluence of soil and ground and a decrease of the runoff. The tributary runoff variability of the Weihe River basin was greater than that of the mainstream because the instability of annual runoff variability was related to the increased variability of precipitation in this decade. Conclusions In the past 200 years, the annual runoff of the Weihe River basin has decreased, showing the characteristics of chronological variation, but with different spatial variations. The annual runoff changes are characterized by suddenness and periodicity. The tributary runoff variability of the Weihe River basin is relatively large, while the mainstream variability is relatively small. Temperature, precipitation, evaporation, and human activities have important influences on the runoff change. Recommendations and perspectives This study lays a foundation for water resources management, assessment, and environmental planning in the Weihe River basin, and also provides a basis for understanding the runoff change patterns over a long period in the past. In addition, this study can offer data for reconstructing historical hydrological runoff sequences, and could be a reference for comparing runoff studies with different data. |
| Key words: Weihe River basin CMIP5 pattern data runoff nearly 200 years spatiotemporal characteristics |
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