| 摘要: |
| 火电行业是我国经济社会发展的重要基础和保障，但也是碳排放的主要源头之一。在“双碳”目标约束下，新能源装机将持续增长，而火电机组则面临降碳和退役的压力。以安徽省为研究区域，考虑“双碳”目标与污染导致的健康损失等因素，对全省现役火电机组的计划退役与有序退役方案进行对比分析，为火电行业实现低碳发展提供路径参考。在有序退役方案下，结合初始投资、使用年限、年度发电收益与污染物排放计算出现役机组每年的净现值，并且根据未来安徽省碳排放削减目标，得到优化后的机组退役时间和顺序。结果表明：与常规的计划退役方案相比，有序退役方案使安徽省火电机组退役时间平均提前约5 a，在2060年碳中和之前可实现现役机组全部退役。2020—2060年，现役机组有序退役可累计减少碳排放量12.76亿t；累计减少SO2、NOx、PM2.5排放量分别为1.44万t、2.13万t、0.17万t，比计划退役方案减少8.66亿元的健康损失。机组的有序退役不仅能带来巨大的环境效益与社会效益，也为“双碳”目标的实现提供了有力保障。 |
| 关键词: “双碳”目标 火电机组 有序退役 健康损失 |
| DOI：10.7515/JEE222075 |
| CSTR： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（71902051）；中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金（JS2023ZSPY0065） |
|
| Research on orderly decommissioning of regional commissioned thermal power plants considering "dual carbon" goals and health damage |
|
LI Fangyi, JIAO Haijia, BAI Yu
|
1. School of Management, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China
2. Anhui Key Laboratory of Philosophy and Social Sciences of Energy and Environment Smart Management and Green Low Carbon Development, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China
|
| Abstract: |
| Background, aim, and scope As an important sector that supports economic and social development, coal-fired thermal power is the primary source of electricity. However, the sector is facing great challenges in realizing the targets of carbon peak and carbon neutrality. Concurrently, the pollutants discharged by thermal power plants damage the health of surrounding residents. Therefore, coal-fired thermal power is identified as important at present but unpopular in future. Reasonable planning of the future capacity of coal-fired thermal power plants is important to balance social demand and targets on carbon peak and pollution reduction. Taking Anhui Province of China as the research area, this paper establishes an orderly decommissioning framework for regional thermal power plants, with the constraints of "dual carbon" goals and the goal of reducing health damage caused by pollutant emissions. It provides a useful reference for regions to realize carbon reduction in the thermal power sector. Materials and methods Herein, the physical effects and health damage of pollutant emissions from thermal power plants on surrounding residents were quantified. The net present value of individual power plants, based on the initial investment, remaining life, future income and health damage, was used to assess the future value of plants. Moreover, the constraints of future production capacity for each year were determined based on the future carbon emission goals of Anhui Province. A planned decommissioning scheme for thermal power plants was established based on their designed lives and relative policies. Then an optimization model was established to obtain an orderly decommissioning scheme for current thermal power plants from 2020 to 2060. Results By comparing the planned and orderly decommissioning schemes, it was found that 93 thermal power plants would be decommissioned 5 years earlier on average in the latter case. The environmental benefits of orderly decommissioning scheme will be significant in contrast to those of the planned one, namely, the cumulative reduction of carbon emissions will be 1.276 billion tons, the emissions of SO2, NOx, and PM2.5 will be reduced by 14.4, 21.3 and 1.7 kilotons, respectively, and the health damage by air pollution will be reduced, incorporating 866 million yuan in health benefits. Discussion The orderly decommissioning scheme of commissioned thermal power plants for a region is determined not only by technical and economic factors, but also by environmental and social impacts, especially the impact on the health of residents. With economic development and income growth, the environmental benefits and climate impact of individual energy sources are becoming decisive factors in energy infrastructure planning. Therefore, this study proposes a decision-making framework with comprehensive consideration of multiple factors to infer the development pathway of the regional thermal power sector. For coal-fired power plants, increasing the net present value by reducing pollutant emissions and offering more services to extend the service duration is feasible. For the entire power sector, the orderly decommissioning of coal-fired power plants should be based on justice and equity according to a unified standard. Moreover, early decommissioning of coal-fired plants implies a substantial demand for renewable energy; therefore, coal-fired plant enterprises can invest in new energy power plants. Conclusions Compared with the planned decommissioning scheme, the orderly decommissioning scheme will lead 93 of the 99 thermal power plants to be decommissioned in advance, and service time of the 93 plants will be shortened by 5.0 years on average. Early decommissioning not only reduces the carbon peak value of Anhui Province’s power sector by 13 million tons, but also reduces the health damage to surrounding residents. With its huge environmental and social benefits, the orderly decommissioning scheme will make a considerable contribution to sustainable development in Anhui Province. Recommendations and perspectives In further studies, considering changes in population density, per capita GDP and disease rate is necessary. Meanwhile, whether the installed capacity of new energy can meet the power demand and support the orderly decommissioning of thermal power plants is worth considering. |
| Key words: "dual carbon" goals thermal power plants orderly decommissioning health damage |
