| 引用本文: | 黄力平,胡东宇,郭冬,刘可祥,王兆鹏,张瑞波,尚华明,张同文.2025.基于树轮宽度重建喀什地区过去164 a来上年12月—当年7 月 SPEI变化[J].地球环境学报,16(2):206-219 |
| HUANG Liping,HU Dongyu,GUO Dong,LIU Kexiang,WANG Zhaopeng,ZHANG Ruibo,SHANG Huaming,ZHANG Tongwen.2025.Tree-ring-width based reconstruction of SPEI changes from previous December to current July for the Kashgar region during the past 164 years[J].Journal of Earth Environment,16(2):206-219 |
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| 基于树轮宽度重建喀什地区过去164 a来上年12月—当年7 月 SPEI变化 |
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黄力平1，胡东宇1，郭冬2，刘可祥2，王兆鹏3，张瑞波2，尚华明2，张同文2*
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1. 新疆林业科学院现代林业研究所，乌鲁木齐 830000
2. 中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所，新疆树轮生态重点实验室，中国气象局树木年轮理化研究重点实验室，乌鲁木齐 830002
3. 哈尔滨师范大学 地理科学学院，哈尔滨 150025
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| 摘要: |
| 利用西昆仑山奥依塔克区域雪岭云杉树芯样本建立其树轮宽度年表，结果显示该树轮宽度年表与喀什地区上年12月—当年7月平均标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）呈极显著正相关。基于这一关系重建喀什地区1857—2020年上年12月—当年7月平均SPEI序列，重建方程的方差解释量为0.408。通过30 a滑动平均发现，1857—2020年存在1857—1873年、1888—1897年、1924—1936年、1957—1968年、1985—2001年、2014—2020年共6个偏湿时期，1874—1887年、1898—1923年、1937—1956年、1969—1984年、2002—2013年共5个偏干时期。空间相关分析结果表明：该平均SPEI重建序列不仅能够反映喀什地区周边的平均SPEI变化，还对包括中亚、新疆西南部、黄土高原等较大空间范围的平均SPEI变化有较好的代表性。多窗谱和小波谱分析显示，该平均SPEI重建序列存在3.2—3.9 a、6—7 a、11 a和16 a的准周期变化。小波相干谱研究结果显示，喀什地区上年12月—当年7月的平均SPEI周期变化可能受ENSO和太阳黑子活动影响。 |
| 关键词: 树木年轮 喀什地区 西昆仑山 雪岭云杉 平均SPEI重建 |
| DOI：10.7515/JEE222095 |
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| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划（2023YFE0102700）；新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金杰出青年科学基金（2022D01E105）；新疆维吾尔自治区高层次人才项目（2023TSYCCX0076） |
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| Tree-ring-width based reconstruction of SPEI changes from previous December to current July for the Kashgar region during the past 164 years |
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HUANG Liping1, HU Dongyu1, GUO Dong2, LIU Kexiang2, WANG Zhaopeng3, ZHANG Ruibo2, SHANG Huaming2, ZHANG Tongwen2*
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1. Institute of Modern Forestry, Xinjiang Academy of Forestry, Urumqi 830000, China
2. Key Laboratory of Tree-ring Physical and Chemical Research of China Meteorological Administration, Xinjiang Laboratory of Tree Ring Ecology, Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
3. College of Geographical Science, Harbin Normal University, Harbin 150025, China
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| Abstract: |
| Background, aim, and scope Since the 1980s, global climate change has profoundly affected arid and semi-arid regions at mid-high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. As a result, a thorough understanding of the long-term climate change characteristics in the Kashgar region, which is located in an arid area is necessary. Tree rings, which can serve as a record of past climate change and are ideal for extending available climate and environmental data. Therefore, in this study, a tree-ring width chronology was used to reconstruct historical dry—wet changes in the Kashgar region. Additionally, its relationships with large-scale climate systems were investigated. Through the climate reconstruction research in Kashgar region, this study aims to understand the long-term evolution characteristics of climate dryness and wetness in the region, thus providing data-based support for exploring the long-term climate change in the arid and semi-arid regions of Central Asia. Materials and methods On the basis of Picea schrenkiana tree-ring samples from the Oyitak area of the West Kunlun Mountains, a tree-ring width chronology was established and its relationships with climatic factors and the mean standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) were analyzed. According to these relationships, the long-term SPEI sequence in the Kashgar region was reconstructed and analyzed in terms of spatial representativeness, periodicity, and climatic drivers. Results The tree-ring width chronology was positively correlated with the mean SPEI in the Kashgar region from December to July. A 164-year (1857—2020) mean SPEI sequence from December to July in the Kashgar region was reconstructed, with 0.408 of the variance explained. According to a 30-year moving average, there were six wet periods (1857—1873, 1888—1897, 1924—1936, 1957—1968, 1985—2001, and 2014—2020) and five dry periods (1874—1887, 1898—1923, 1937—1956, 1969—1984, and 2002—2013). A spatial correlation analysis showed that the reconstructed mean SPEI sequence reflected the mean SPEI changes in the areas surrounding the Kashgar region, while also representing the mean SPEI changes in Central Asia, southwest Xinjiang, and the Loess Plateau. A multitaper and wavelet spectral analysis indicated that there were quasi-periodic variations of 3.2—3.9 a, 6—7 a, 11 a, and 16 a. Discussion The tree-ring width chronology was significantly correlated with the average SPEI from December to July. This relationship was closely linked to the synergistic effects of temperature and precipitation on physiological processes associated with the radial growth of Picea schrenkiana trees in the Kashgar region. Comparisons with the results of research conducted in adjacent regions revealed the consistency between the reconstructed SPEI sequence and the trends in regional hydroclimatic changes during the same period. According to a spatial correlation analysis, the reconstructed SPEI sequence in the Kashgar region reflected the spatial representativeness of dry—wet changes in the surrounding area. Dry—wet climatic changes in this region are closely linked to the Asian Westerly Belt, but they also reflect the characteristics of dry—wet changes in some arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China. The results of a wavelet coherence spectrum analysis indicated that periodic variations in the December—July mean SPEI for the Kashgar region were influenced by ENSO and sunspot activity, indicative of the long-term effects of global climate change and solar activity on dry—wet changes in this region. Conclusions A Picea schrenkiana tree-ring width chronology was used to reconstruct the historical SPEI sequence in the Kashgar region, thereby supplementing the recorded dry—wet changes and elucidating regional long-term climatic variability, spatial representativeness, and periodic changes. This reconstructed historical SPEI sequence accurately reflects dry—wet changes in southwestern Xinjiang, while also indicating that ENSO and solar activity influence the periodicity of dry—wet changes in the region. The reconstructed sequence provides a foundation for characterizing past climate extremes and their drivers, with possible implications for climate modeling and adaptation strategies in the Kashgar region. Recommendations and perspectives On the basis of the study findings, in future investigations, we will analyze different climatic and environmental factors to more comprehensively characterize climatic and environmental changes in the Kashgar region. Moreover, the results of the current study may be relevant to protecting certain ecosystems, managing and using water resources, and achieving dual carbon goals (i.e., carbon emissions peak and carbon neutral status) in the Kashgar region and surrounding areas. |
| Key words: tree-ring Kashgar region West Kunlun Mountains Picea schrenkiana mean SPEI reconstruction |
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