| 引用本文: | 孙雪，沙丹丹，王霄，张庆池.2024.常熟市大气污染特征、健康风险评价及潜在源分析[J].地球环境学报,15(3):421-432 |
| SUN Xue, SHA Dandan, WANG Xiao, ZHANG Qingchi.2024.Characteristics of air pollution, health risk assessment, and potential source analysis in Changshu[J].Journal of Earth Environment,15(3):421-432 |
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| 摘要: |
| 利用常熟市2018—2020年空气质量自动监测站点的常规大气污染物数据对空气质量及主要污染物变化特征进行分析，并利用大气污染与健康暴露评价模型分析常熟市近年来大气健康风险特征，同时结合HYSPLIT后向轨迹模型，综合运用轨迹聚类及PSCF分析方法，计算不同季节影响常熟市城区的主要气流输送路径及常熟市O3的主要潜在源区。结果表明：2018—2020年，常熟市空气质量明显改善，AQI达标天逐年增多，中重度以上污染天呈明显减少趋势，SO2、PM2.5、NO2、PM10浓度均呈下降趋势，大气污染防治效果显著。PM2.5与O3仍是影响常熟市空气质量的主要因素，其中O3对于空气质量影响逐年增强。PM2.5季节变化特征明显，冬季浓度最高，夏季最低；O3浓度春夏季较高，冬季最低。常熟市大气污染物的健康风险同污染物特征分布趋于一致，具有显著的时间分布特征。颗粒物对人体健康的相对风险值处于较低水平，呈逐年降低趋势；而O3的健康风险威胁总体上高于颗粒物，且在近两年逐渐上升，夏季对人体健康威胁风险等级达适中级别，造成死亡率/发病率的相对风险增加3%—5.1%。后向轨迹聚类分析结果表明常熟市夏季受南与东南方向气流影响较大，二者在夏季总气流轨迹中的占比高达66.21%。潜在源分析结果表明，常熟地区对人体健康威胁较大的O3潜在源区广泛，主要分布在江苏北部、安徽南部、浙江东部地区，同时还存在部分广东地区的远距离输送。 |
| 关键词: 大气污染 PM2.5 O3 污染特征 健康风险 潜在源分析 |
| DOI：10.7515/JEE242007 |
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| 基金项目:城市化背景下城区高影响天气监测预警和智能服务关键技术研究（KC23321） |
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| Characteristics of air pollution, health risk assessment, and potential source analysis in Changshu |
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SUN Xue, SHA Dandan, WANG Xiao, ZHANG Qingchi
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1. Xuzhou Bureau of Meteorology, Xuzhou 221000, China
2. Agricultural Meteorological Experiment Station of Xuzhou, Xuzhou 221000, China
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| Abstract: |
| Background, aim, and scope The rapid pace of industrialization and urbanization has led to widespread air pollution as a global environmental challenge. Prolonged exposure to contaminated environments significantly heightens health risks for individuals. Situated within the economically advanced Yangtze River Delta region, Changshu experiences swift urban expansion alongside escalating levels of pollution with complex attributes. This research mainly centers on examining air pollution patterns and conducting a health risk assessment for Changshu spanning from 2018 to 2020. In addition, it also investigates primary pollutant sources, aiming to comprehensively comprehend shifts in air quality within Changshu while providing valuable insights for enhancing public health metrics through targeted environmental policies. Materials and methods In this study, the characteristics of air pollution, health risks and potential sources of pollutants in Changshu were explored using the exposure assessment model of population health, locus cluster analysis and potential source contribution factor. Results From 2018 to 2020, the air quality of Changshu has improved significantly, and PM2.5 and O3 are still the main factors influencing the air quality of Changshu. The health risk threat of O3 is higher than that of particulate matter and exhibits an increasing trend. The potential sources of O3 pollution are widely distributed, mainly in northern Jiangsu, southern Anhui and eastern Zhejiang, and there is also long-distance transport from Guangdong. Discussion Atmospheric pollution poses a lot of ecological and environmental challenges while also posing risks to human health. Among escalating urban environmental degradation, O3 and particulate matter contamination have become increasingly conspicuous. It becomes imperative for authorities to intensify their focus on monitoring changes related to particulate matter and ozone contamination. Research indicates that despite improvements in air quality within Changshu limits, increased levels of O3 during spring and summer continue to pose substantial health risks by significantly elevating relative mortality/morbidity rates. Analysis indicates that local emissions serve as primary contributors to pollutant concentrations within Changshu; however, inflow from neighboring regions further exacerbates localized contamination levels, underscoring an urgent need for comprehensive spatial-temporal surveillance targeting urban contaminants alongside trend analyses rooted in emission sources with stringent enforcement measures. Conclusions The distribution characteristics of air pollutants in Changshu tend to be consistent with the characteristics of health risks, with the time characteristics of high winter and low summer, and O3 is vice versa. Changshu is significantly affected by air flow in the south and southeast in summer, and by air flow in the northwest in winter and spring. The potential source area of O3 is mainly local emission. Recommendations and perspectives This study shows that the impact of O3 on air quality is increasing year by year, and the threat to human health risks is significantly increased. Considering that air transport also exerts a certain impact on pollutant concentration, it is extremely vital to strengthen local control and regional joint control for O3 control. |
| Key words: air pollution PM2.5 O3 pollution characteristics health risks potential source region |
