| 摘要: |
| 全面核算能源消费产生的碳排放量并明确其时空演变的影响因素是制定、实施及评估黄河流域碳减排策略的依据和保障。选取黄河流域9省（区）作为研究区，采用LMDI模型，计算了2003—2019年黄河流域能源消费产生的碳排放量，并对其时空差异及其影响因素进行了分析。结果表明：（1）从时间序列演化特征来看，在2003—2019年，黄河流域的碳排放量整体呈增长趋势，但增长幅度逐年收缩；（2）从空间分异特征来看，黄河流域上、中、下游的碳排放量呈西低东高的区域格局；（3）能源消费强度效应与经济增长效应分别是减缓和促进区域碳排放量增长的关键性因素，人口规模效应对于碳排放量表现为正向驱动作用，但影响程度较小，能源碳排放强度的抑制作用十分有限。最后，针对各影响因素提出了碳减排措施的对策建议。 |
| 关键词: LMDI 黄河流域 碳排放 时空分异 |
| DOI：10.7515/JEE222013 |
| CSTR： |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（41701224）；第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目（2019QZKK0605）；山西省软科学研究计划（2018041049-1） |
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| Spatiotemporal variations and influencing factors of carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin based on LMDI model |
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CHEN Feng, ZHANG Jing, REN Jiao, XIANG Yanyun, LI Qian
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1. School of Resources and Environment, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, Taiyuan 030006, China
2. Research Institute of Transition of Resource-Based Economics, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, Taiyuan 030006, China
3. School of Public Administration, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, Taiyuan 030006, China
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| Abstract: |
| Background, aim, and scope In order to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality and fulfill national ecological conservation and high-quality development in the Yellow River basin, regional governments are facing great challenges in carbon emission reduction. However, according to current research status, the temporal spatial evaluations and influencing factors for carbon emission in the 9 provinces (regions) within the Yellow River basin are still unclear. This study is designed to investigate the spatiotemporal variations of carbon emissions in the 9 provinces (regions) of the Yellow River basin, so as to analyze the influencing factors of carbon emissions, which has important reference value for low-carbon transformation in the 9 provinces (regions) of the Yellow River basin. Materials and methods In this study, the carbon emissions of main energy consumptions in the 9 provinces (regions) of the Yellow River basin from 2003 to 2019 were calculated by the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method, which decomposes the carbon emissions quantity into population size effect, economic growth effect, energy consumption intensity effect and energy carbon emission intensity effect. Results According to the results, the overall carbon emissions from energy consumption in the Yellow River basin have not yet reached the peak, but it indeed showed a weaker increasing trend. Furthermore, significant differences in carbon emissions were detected across the Yellow River basin (downstream＞upstream＞midstream). In addition, the carbon emissions of the Yellow River basin were mainly affected by economic growth and energy consumption intensity, while the impact of population scale and energy carbon emission intensity were small and almost negligible. Discussion The effects of population size and economic growth positively drive the carbon emissions in the upstream, midstream and downstream of the Yellow River basin. The effect of energy consumption intensity mainly inhibits the carbon emissions in the upstream, midstream and downstream of the Yellow River basin. The effect of energy carbon emission intensity positively drives the carbon emissions in the midstream of the Yellow River basin, but restrains the carbon emission in the upstream and downstream of the Yellow River basin at the same time. At present, the economic growth effect has the strongest influence on carbon emissions in the Yellow River basin, but the impacts of other factors on regional carbon emissions and the influence level of these impacts are still controversial. We think that social and economic developing gaps within regions are the major cause of these divergences, which need to be further studied. Conclusions Carbon emissions in the Yellow River basin are still increasing year by year, showing a pattern of low emissions in the West and high emissions in the East. Furthermore, population size effect and economic growth effect are positive driving factors, while energy consumption intensity effect while energy carbon emission intensity effect are negative inhibitory factors. Recommendations and perspectives More attention should be paid to further change of the economic growth mode and consumption concept in 9 provinces (regions) of the Yellow River basin, and promote the implementation of new energy strategies. |
| Key words: LMDI Yellow River basin carbon emissions spatiotemporal variations |
