| 摘要: |
| 我国是遭受热带气旋灾害最为严重的国家之一。其年际年代际演化特征仍不清晰。采用中国气象局公布的1949—2018年的最佳路径数据集、登陆热带气旋名录以及HadlSST数据，探讨近70 a以来我国东部沿海热带气旋的时空演化特征及其与海表温度变化的内在关联。结果表明：（1）70 a间，热带气旋生成个数以及登陆我国东部沿海地区的个数略有波动，但超强热带气旋个数生成以及登陆我国的个数呈现明显增加趋势；登陆我国东部沿海地区的热带气旋大多生成于7、8、9月份，但4月以及11月也存在热带气旋生成并登陆现象。（2）登陆我国东部沿海地区的热带气旋主要生成于西北太平洋海域（432个）、南海海域（199个）和东海海域（28个），且主要在我国广东（220个）、海南（153个）、台湾（146个）、福建（47个）登陆。（3）热带气旋生成及登陆我国气旋与全球海表温度具有高度相关性；与西太平洋海温呈正相关，与东太平洋与印度洋海温呈负相关。 |
| 关键词: 热带气旋 东部沿海 演化特征 海表温度 |
| DOI：10.7515/JEE202016 |
| CSTR：32259.14.JEE202016 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:国家优秀青年基金项目（41822101）；中组部“万人计划”“青年拔尖人才”项目；国家自然科学基金面上项
目（41471172）；福建省“青年拔尖创新人才计划”项目 |
| 英文基金项目:National Excellent Young Scientists Fund (41822101); “Young Top Talents” Project of the “Ten Thousand Talents Program” of the Organization Department of the Central Committee of the CPC; General Projects of National Natural Science Foundation of China (41471172); Fujian “Young Top Innovative Talents Program”) |
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| A study on the evolution characteristics of tropical cyclones in the eastern coast of China |
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ZHANG Guangying, FANG Keyan, CHEN Ping, BAI Maowei, ZHAO Zheng
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1. Cultivation Base of State Key Laboratory of Humid Subtropical Mountain Ecology, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China
2. School of Geographical Sciences, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China
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| Abstract: |
| Background, aim, and scope Tropical cyclones are strong warm low-pressure vortex systems formed on the surface of tropical or subtropical oceans, and distributed in the western Pacific and its adjacent waters (typhoons), the Atlantic and northeastern Pacific (hurricanes), and the Indian and South Pacific (cyclones). In its formation, development, and activities, it is often accompanied by strong winds, heavy rain, and huge waves. It is one of the most destructive natural disasters in the world. The Northwest Pacific is the only sea area in the world where tropical cyclones are generated all year round. Being close to the Northwest Pacific, China is one of the countries most seriously affected by tropical cyclones. At present, with the rapid social and economic development, the losses caused by tropical cyclones are also increasing rapidly. Therefore, the accuracy of the tropical cyclone activity path and its intensity forecast accuracy is extremely critical to reduce the disaster caused by typhoons. Based on the existing tropical cyclone records in China, this paper discusses the evolution characteristics of tropical cyclones along the eastern coast of China in the past 70 years, with a view to providing scientific reference value for future tropical cyclone monitoring and forecasting, and thus reducing the losses caused by tropical cyclone disasters. Materials and methods This paper employs the best path data set from 1949 to 2018 published by China Meteorological Administration, the Landing Tropical Cyclone List and the Hardley Center HadlSST data set published on the UK Met Office Ocean Database (MDB) website. The statistics of the Pacific Ocean and the tropical cyclones that landed in China were analyzed to discuss the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of tropical cyclones along the eastern coast of China (1949—2018) and their internal correlations with sea surface temperature changes. Results In terms of time, a total of 2355 tropical cyclones (including sub-centers) were generated during the 70 years, with an average of 33 generated each year. From the perspective of space, the tropical cyclones generated in East China Sea mainly landed in east China region, of which, those in South China Sea account for 43.55% and those in the Northwest Pacific Ocean for 55.67%. Tropical cyclones that landed in the northeast China were mainly generated in the Northwest Pacific Ocean. Discussion Tropical cyclone activities and their changes have received great attention from domestic meteorologists who have conducted studies from different angles such as the formation, movement, and effects of tropical cyclones. However, these efforts are basically directed to the meteorology and dynamics of tropical cyclones. The current research on the impact of sea surface temperature on tropical cyclones mainly focuses on the case of tropical cyclones, the internal relationship between sea surface temperature and tropical cyclones at the annual scale, the changes in regional sea surface temperature and tropical cyclone evolution characteristics at the 70-year long scale. Relevance studies are rarely reported. Conclusions (1) The number of tropical cyclones and their landing times in the eastern coastal areas of China have fluctuated slightly over the 70 years, but the number of super-strong tropical cyclones and their landing times in China showed a significant increase; tropical cyclones landing in the eastern coastal areas of China mostly occurred in July, August and September, but there were also tropical cyclone formation and land phenomenon in April and November. (2) Tropical cyclones that landed on the eastern coastal areas of China were mainly generated in the Northwest Pacific Ocean (432), East China Sea (28) and South China Sea (199), and landed mainly in Guangdong (220), Hainan (153), Taiwan (146) and Fujian (47). (3) The occurrence and landfall of tropical cyclones in China are highly correlated with global sea surface temperature; they are positively correlated with the Western Pacific Ocean while negatively correlated with the East Pacific and Indian Ocean. Recommendations and perspectives This paper adopts the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) published in 1949—2018 of the best path data sets and the tropical cyclone name list and HadlSST data to study China’s eastern coastal space-time evolution characteristics of tropical cyclone and its inner relation of sea surface temperature changes in the past 70 years. With more meteorological data (air pressure, wind speed, etc.), a more comprehensive comparison research can be carried out to reach more accurate conclusions. |
| Key words: tropical cyclone east coast evolutionary characteristics sea surface temperature (SST) |
