| 摘要: |
| 控制以CO2为主的温室气体排放，“力争2030年前实现碳达峰，争取2060年前实现碳中和”是我国近年来面临的重大任务。碳排放研究是实现“双碳”目标的基础和前提，从碳排放测算、碳排放影响因素分析、行业碳排放研究三个方面对我国碳排放研究现状进行梳理，对近年来研究的重点方向、主要成果和目前存在的主要问题进行分析，并结合我国的“双碳”目标提出现阶段我国“以完善政策标准与加大政府扶持为基础，以产业结构调整与新兴产业发展、能源结构调整与新能源技术发展为核心，以探索CCUS（碳捕集、利用与封存）技术和增加碳汇及对居民低碳消费倾向的引导和培养为导向”的碳减排路径。 |
| 关键词: 碳排放测算 影响因素 行业碳排放 碳减排路径 碳达峰 碳中和 |
| DOI：10.7515/JEE221025 |
| CSTR：32259.14.JEE221025 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（41977332） |
| 英文基金项目:National Natural Science Foundation of China (41977332) |
|
| Carbon emission status and mitigation path under the vision “carbon neutrality” in China |
|
LIU Yali, GUO Xiao, DAI Wenting, LIU Suixin, LI Jianjun
|
1. Earth Environment Innovation Research Institute of Xi’an, Xi’an 710061, China
2. Key Lab of Aerosol Chemistry and Physics, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi’an 710061, China
|
| Abstract: |
| Background, aim, and scope Climate change and global warming, which is caused by anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, is a serious threat to ecological security, food security and water security, and is a major global challenge today. As the world’s largest economy, China has become the world’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide since 2005. The carbon emissions from China accounted for about 30 percent of the world’s total emissions in 2014. In September 2020, China announced its goal to have carbon dioxide emissions peak by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, in order to address the climate change and global warming. Research on carbon emissions is fundamental and could provide important information in taking actions to achieve the goal. We therefore review the studies of carbon emissions in China in recent years. Materials and methods In this paper, we summarize the literature from the following aspects: (1) the main calculation methods of carbon emissions, the current situation and challenges of carbon emissions calculation in China; (2) the analytical methods of influence factors of carbon emissions, and the research status and deficiencies of carbon emissions influence factors in China; (3) the research progress and main shortcomings of carbon emissions from industry, agriculture, transportation and residents consumption field in China; (4) suggestions of the main carbon mitigation paths based on the research status of carbon emissions in China. Results At present, systematic calculation methods, and analytical methods of influence factors in the field of carbon emissions have been formed. China has made great progress in research on carbon emissions calculation, influence factors analysis, and carbon mitigation paths, especially in the industry, agriculture, transportation, and resident consumption fields, but it still has a few challenges and problems to be resolved. Discussion (1) Carbon emissions calculation has formed a system with emission factor method as the mainstream method, and carbon mass balance method, model estimation method, actual measurement method and carbon satellite remote sensing monitoring method as auxiliary methods; national carbon emissions accounting has been carried out in an orderly manner, but due to the statistical deviation and lack of statistical data over the years, carbon emissions accounting results are not authoritative; guidelines for industrial carbon emissions accounting has been issued, but they have not been effectively carried out. (2) The analytical methods of influence factors of carbon emissions include factor decomposition analysis, decoupling relationship analysis and econometric model analysis. The research perspective focuses on the national (provincial and municipal), regional, and industry levels. Economic development, population growth, industrial structure, energy structure, and technological level are considered to be the main influencing factors of carbon emissions. However, there is still lacking systematic analysis of the impact of complex factors such as historical development, climate change, geographical location and population aging, and also lacking long-time series analysis on the influence factor of carbon emissions. (3) Scientists have conducted a lot of research and discussion on carbon emissions calculation, influence factors analysis and carbon mitigation paths of industry, agriculture, transportation and residents’ consumption field. Among them, more research is on industry and transportation, and less is on agriculture and residents’ consumption field. The bottleneck in carbon emissions calculation is caused by the inconsistency of emission factors. Computational boundary and emission source is still the dilemma of industrial carbon emissions research. Conclusions China has made big progress in research of carbon emissions in recent years, which has laid a foundation to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality, despite there are some limitations in the research. Recommendations and perspectives At this stage, standardized and refined carbon emissions calculation system should be established. Also, carbon emissions from industry should be reduced to a greater extent. Lastly, the carbon mitigation path should be practiced, which is based on “consummate policy and standard, reinforce government support, implement carbon emission trading and levy carbon tax, upgrade industrial structure and adjust energy structure, develop low-carbon and new energy technologies, explore CCUS (carbon capture, utilization, and storage) technology and increase carbon sink, guide and cultivate residents’ low-carbon consumption tendency”. |
| Key words: carbon emissions calculation influence factors industrial carbon emissions carbon mitigation path carbon peak carbon neutrality |
