| 摘要: |
| 2021年9月，由于大西洋北海地区风速突然下降，英国的海上风力发电量骤减，导致欧洲能源市场陷入混乱。风速的年际变化和长期逐渐减弱的趋势可能是造成这次事件的主要原因。此外，北海上一种持续3—4 d的阻塞高压也促成了低风速事件的发生。一个移动缓慢的暖脊显著地阻挡了西风气流，并割裂了北极极涡，导致北极和东欧地区的冷空气积聚。这种天气形势有可能引发寒潮，进一步增加电网的负担。然而，扩大风力发电机安装规模并不能有效应对此类事件。值得注意的是，中国的可再生能源发展也面临着与英国相似的挑战。因此，激进的可再生能源政策并不可取。为了更好地应对这些来自气候的挑战，可再生能源的发展需要从提高装备技术、发展混合能源系统以及开展更加精细的资源评估三个方面入手。以上结论对中国能源系统的转型具有重要的参考意义。 |
| 关键词: 低风速 大气阻塞 可再生能源 能源系统转型 |
| DOI：10.7515/JEE232002 |
| CSTR：32259.14.JEE232002 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（42242020） |
| 英文基金项目:National Natural Science Foundation of China (42242020) |
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| Climatic challenges for renewable energy development: lessons from the UK |
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HUANG Wei, LIU Yan, MA Hui, GAO Lei, YANG Xiaofan, SONG Changqing
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1. Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental Systems, Ministry of Education, College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
2. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
3. Beijing Gold Wind Smart Energy Technology Co., Ltd., Beijing 100176, China
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| Abstract: |
| Background, aim, and scope As global warming intensifies, utilizing renewable energy sources to reduce carbon emissions becomes increasingly important. However, the development of renewable energy faces challenges from climate, such as the low wind speed event that occurred in the North Sea in Sep. 2021. This event severely impacted the United Kingdom’s offshore wind power generation and led to instability in the European energy market. Materials and methods In this study, ERA5 reanalysis data were used to examine the spatiotemporal variations in wind speed and the atmospheric circulation patterns related to the event. Official statistics on cumulative installed capacity and offshore wind power generation were used to analyze the role of the expansion of installed capacity in response to low wind events. Results The interannual variability and a long-term gradual decline in wind speed were found to be the physical causes of the low wind speed occurrence. A blocking high in the North Sea with a life span of 3—4 d also has a favorable impact on the likelihood of the low wind speed event. The anomalously warm ridge traveled slowly eastward, significantly blocking the westerly flow. The Arctic polar vortex was split by the warm ridge, resulting in the accumulation of cold air in northern Greenland and eastern Europe, and there was a decent possibility that a cold wave would emerge in Europe. Discussion The low wind speed events pose severe impacts on the UK’s offshore wind power generation. Due to a highly consistent variation pattern of wind power resources across Europe, these impacts cannot be resolved by expanding the installed capacity. China’s surface wind speed has been weakening over the past few decades as a result of climate change, principally because of a decrease in the power of the barometric pressure gradient. The impact of powerful El Niño events is also anticipated to enhance the interannual variability of wind speed in China. It is futile to solve the unpredictability and intermittency of wind resources by linking wind farms in various areas since on a broader time scale, the spatial variation in China’s wind resources also displays similar patterns. As a result, China is experiencing difficulties with the growth of wind power similar to those in the UK. Conclusions Climate change has already posed challenges to the development of renewable energy, and these challenges will become increasingly severe as global warming continues. Therefore, it is essential to avoid aggressive approaches when deploying renewable energy policies. Recommendations and perspectives Addressing such events may require advancements in wind turbine technology, hybrid energy systems, and more refined wind resource assessments. |
| Key words: low wind speed atmospheric blocking renewable energy energy system transition |
