| 引用本文: | 姚姣姣,蒲阳,康虹,支达,黄恰恰.2026.近三十多年长江源区湖泊面积及水量波动与区域气温变化相关性研究[J].地球环境学报,17(3):622-635 |
| YAO Jiaojiao,PU Yang,KANG Hong,ZHI Da,HUANG Qiaqia.2026.Research on the correlation between variations in lake area and volume in the source region of the Yangtze River and regional temperature changes over the past three decades[J].Journal of Earth Environment,17(3):622-635 |
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| 摘要: |
| 湖泊水文状况的变化必然会对区域环境产生深刻的影响, 因此探索水文环境与气象因子之间的关系一直以来备受学术界关注。迄今为止, 青藏高原湖泊面积及水量的波动与区域气温变化之间的关系尚不是很明确。文章采用Landsat TM、ETM+以及OLI卫星影像, 利用归一化水体指数(NDWI)并结合目视解译法, 统计了长江源区1986—2021年33个大于10 km²湖泊的面积年际变化。并搜集了典型湖泊水量变化数据和气象站点的温度资料, 利用相关性分析、突变分析以及Liang-Kleeman信息流分析方法, 聚焦湖泊面积及水量变化与区域气温波动之间的关系。结果表明: 1986—2021年长江源区湖泊群总面积及典型湖泊总水量均呈现先下降后上升的趋势; 湖泊面积及典型湖泊水量与区域温度变化之间呈显著相关关系, 且湖泊面积及水量变化大致在2003年前后发生突变, 与相邻气象站年均温度突变时间节点一致。但是长江源区以北和以南气象站的温度突变点却存在着不同程度的差异。进一步通过Liang-Kleeman信息流因果分析, 显示长江源区湖泊总面积及典型湖泊水量变化均与区域温度存在单向信息流, 说明湖泊面积及水量的变化会直接影响区域温度变化。基于上述发现, 研究认为, 随着未来长江源区湖泊群不断扩张, 湖泊的“储热器效应”将愈发显著, 具有稳定长江源区气温波动的积极作用。研究加深了对青藏高原湖泊水文环境与区域气候条件之间联系的认识, 为高原环境保护及气候减缓与适应政策的制定提供了参考。 |
| 关键词: 青藏高原 湖泊面积 长江源区 气候变化 储热器效应 |
| DOI：10.7515/JEE2023253 |
| CSTR：32259.14.JEE2023253 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（42171160） |
| 英文基金项目: |
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| Research on the correlation between variations in lake area and volume in the source region of the Yangtze River and regional temperature changes over the past three decades |
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YAO Jiaojiao，PU Yang，KANG Hong，ZHI Da，HUANG Qiaqia
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School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044 , China
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| Abstract: |
| Background, aim, and scope Variations in lake hydrological conditions inevitably exert profound impacts on the regional environment; consequently, investigating the relationship between hydrological environments and climatic factors has long been a central focus in academic research. To date, however, the relationship between fluctuations in lake area and water volume across the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and regional temperature changes has not yet been fully elucidated. Against this research context, the present study focuses on the source region of the Yangtze River (SRYR) on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau as the study area, with an aim to disentangle the causal linkage between long-term hydrological evolution of lakes and regional thermal variations. Materials and methods This study utilized a multi-decadal time series (1986—2021) of Landsat TM, ETM+, and OLI imagery to characterize the annual spatiotemporal variations in the surface area of 33 major lakes (each >10 km²) within the SRYR (32°25′—36°15′N, 89°25′—97°45′E). The normalized difference water index (NDWI), integrated with rigorous visual refinement, was employed to ensure high-fidelity shoreline extraction. Furthermore, lake volume dynamics and concurrent meteorological records from proximal stations were collected. To quantify the complex interactions, correlation analysis, abrupt change detection, and Liang-Kleeman information flow analysis were applied to elucidate the causal linkages between lake morphometric fluctuations and regional air temperature shifts. Results The analysis demonstrated that between 1986 and 2021, the total surface area and typical water volume of lake clusters in the SRYR first exhibited a declining trend, followed by a pronounced increase. Notable shifts in lake area and water volume occurred around 2003, aligning closely with abrupt changes in annual mean temperature recorded at nearby meteorological stations. A significant positive correlation was observed between variations in lake area and water volume and regional temperature fluctuations. However, the timing of abrupt temperature changes differed among meteorological stations located in the northern and southern parts of the SRYR, showing noticeable lead-lag relationships. Furthermore, Liang-Kleeman information flow analysis confirms a unidirectional information flow from lake area and water volume dynamics to regional temperature variation, indicating that lake hydrological conditions exert a considerable influence on regional air temperature patterns. Discussion The SRYR experiences intense solar radiation owing to its thin atmosphere, exerting a substantial influence on surface temperatures. Concurrently, lakes in the region possess considerable thermal storage capacity due to the high specific heat of water. Specifically, during summer when solar radiation is strongest, lake water absorbs and retains substantial amounts of heat, thereby attenuating the rise in regional air temperature. Conversely, in autumn, as solar radiation weakens and ambient temperatures decrease, the lakes release previously stored heat, moderating the cooling rate across the SRYR. Conclusions This study reveals a significant “heat reservoir effect” of expansive lake clusters in the SRYR on regional temperatures. We propose that the projected expansion of these lake groups in the coming decades will further moderate regional air temperature fluctuations, thereby mitigating climate variability in the SRYR. Recommendations and perspectives This study advances our understanding of the linkages between the hydrological conditions of lakes on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and regional air temperature dynamics. It also provides invaluable insights for informing environmental protection strategies and climate adaptation and mitigation policies in the SRYR. |
| Key words: Qinghai-Xizang Plateau lake area source region of the Yangtze River climate change heat reservoir effect |
