| 引用本文: | 李奔月,宁亮,李楚鑫,严蜜,刘健,刘征宇,覃燕敏,陈可凡,吴芬.2026.气候变化对长三角地区经济的影响[J].地球环境学报,17(3):636-647 |
| LI Benyue,NING Liang,LI Chuxin,YAN Mi,LIU Jian,LIU Zhengyu,QIN Yanmin,CHEN Kefan,WU Fen.2026.The impact of climate change on the economy of Yangtze River Delta[J].Journal of Earth Environment,17(3):636-647 |
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| 摘要: |
| 文章以长三角地区为研究对象，深入剖析经济发展与气候变化之间的内在联系，并评估未来不同增温情景对区域经济的潜在影响；通过构建固定效应面板模型，探讨年均温、年降雨量、月降雨量偏差的年总和及湿润天数等气候要素变动与经济发展之间的关联。结果显示，经济发展对温度变化具有较高敏感性：当温度未超过18 ℃时，气温上升对经济无明显负面影响，甚至可能产生促进作用；而一旦温度超过18 ℃，负面影响随温度上升显著加剧。在此基础上，结合DICE模型对不同RCP情景下的其后经济损失进行评估，结果显示，仅在RCP2.6情景下经济未出现明显损害；在RCP4.5、RCP6.0与RCP8.5情景中，经济损失比例预计在7%—40%，且损失幅度与温度升幅呈正相关。该分析为长三角地区应对气候变化、制定经济发展策略提供了关键依据与数据支撑，同时强调需采取有效减排措施以控制温升，从而减轻潜在的经济损失。 |
| 关键词: 长三角 经济与气候 固定效应面板模型 DICE模型 |
| DOI：10.7515/JEE2023265 |
| CSTR：32259.14.JEE2023265 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目（2020YFA0608601）；黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室开放基金项目（SKLLQG1820，SKLLQG1930）；中国科学院（B类）战略性先导科技专项项目（XDB40000000） |
| 英文基金项目: |
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| The impact of climate change on the economy of Yangtze River Delta |
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LI Benyue1，2，NING Liang1，2，3，LI Chuxin1，2，YAN Mi1，2，LIU Jian1，2，LIU Zhengyu4，QIN Yanmin1，2，CHEN Kefan1，2，WU Fen1，2
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1. Key Laboratory for Virtual Geographic Environment, Ministry of Education, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023 , China ；2. School of Geography, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023 , China ；3. State Key Laboratory of Loess Science, Institute of Earth Environment, China Academy of Sciences, Xi'an 710061 , China ；4. Department of Geography, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, USA
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| Abstract: |
| Background, aim, and scope Climate change poses significant risks to socio-economic systems worldwide. This study aims to investigate the relationship between economic development and climate change in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), and to assess the economic impacts under various future warming scenarios. Specifically, we examine how variations in annual temperature, precipitation, monthly rainfall anomalies, and the number of wet days influence economic growth. Materials and methods A fixed-effects panel model is employed to analyze long-term data on climate variables and economic indicators, including gross domestic product (GDP). In addition, the dynamic integrated model of climate and the economy (DICE) is applied to project future economic impacts under different climate scenarios. Results The results indicate that economic development in the YRD is highly sensitive to temperature changes. When temperature increases remain below 18 ℃, no significant negative economic impacts are observed. However, beyond this threshold, higher temperatures exert increasingly detrimental effects on the economy. Projections further suggest that economic impacts remain minimal only under the RCP2.6 scenario. In contrast, under the RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios, economic losses are projected to range from 7% to 40%, increasing in line with temperature rise. Discussion A key finding of this study is the pronounced threshold effect of temperature on economic performance. While impacts remain limited below 18 ℃, economic damages escalate rapidly once this threshold is exceeded. For instance, in the agricultural sector, extreme heat can damage crops, reduce yields, and increase irrigation demand, leading to substantial economic losses. In the industrial sector, elevated temperatures may reduce labor productivity due to increased cooling requirements and may disrupt supply chains. These findings highlight the critical importance of limiting temperature increases below the identified threshold. Conclusions This study demonstrates that constraining global warming to within 2 ℃ is essential for minimizing economic losses in the YRD. The results provide strong evidence supporting aggressive emission reduction strategies to safeguard economic development against climate risks. Recommendations and perspectives We recommend urgent and comprehensive emission reduction measures to limit warming below 2 ℃. Future research should focus on developing adaptive strategies for the YRD and other economically critical regions. Policymakers are encouraged to integrate climate risk assessments into economic planning to enhance long-term resilience. |
| Key words: Yangtze River Delta economy and climate fixed-effects panel model DICE model |
