| 引用本文: | 孟克巴衣尔,蔡秋芳,刘禹,谢梅,周秋月,张涵玉.2026.大别山地区过去70a气候变化时空特征分析[J].地球环境学报,17(3):683-695 |
| Mengke Bayier,CAI Qiufang,LIU Yu,XIE Mei,ZHOU Qiuyue,ZHANG Hanyu.2026.Analysis of spatial and temporal characteristics of climate change in the Dabie Mountains over the past 70 a[J].Journal of Earth Environment,17(3):683-695 |
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| 大别山地区过去70a气候变化时空特征分析 |
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孟克巴衣尔1，3，蔡秋芳1，2，刘禹1，2，谢梅1，3，周秋月1，3，张涵玉1，3
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1. 中国科学院地球环境研究所 黄土科学全国重点实验室, 西安 710061 ；2. 陕西关中平原区域生态环境变化与综合治理国家野外科学观测研究站, 西安 710061 ；3. 中国科学院大学, 北京 100049
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| 摘要: |
| 位于秦岭东部的大别山是我国重要的生态屏障和水源涵养区,其气候变化与自然生态和社会经济发展息息相关。基于现代气象观测记录和代用资料分析,前人对大别山的气候变化特征已开展了一些研究,但对于该区气候变化的时空特征、温度年循环(ATC)和昼夜温差(DTR)方面的研究十分缺乏,限制了对该区气候变化特征的全面了解。文章基于大别山地区12个站点1951—2020年的月平均气候资料,采用线性回归和Mann-Kendall(M-K)非参数检验等方法分析了大别山不同海拔高度、不同坡向的气候变化特征,并进一步开展了研究区ATC和DTR分析。结果表明:(1)大别山地区气温变化空间特征整体一致,以增温为主,其中,最低温的升温趋势显著高于年均温和最高温,且高海拔(>100 m)的年均最低气温倾向率最为显著;相比之下,北坡增温幅度高于南坡;在季节尺度上,南、北坡春、冬、秋、夏的增温趋势均依次由强到弱;M-K突变检验揭示大别山南、北坡年均温都在1997年发生了一次突变;(2)虽然大别山年降水总量表现出由北坡向南坡增加的趋势,但降水在海拔梯度和坡向分布方面都没有表现出长期的显著变化特征;(3)在气候记录时段,大别山南、北坡年平均相对湿度呈较为显著的下降趋势,表明过去70 a研究区存在干旱化过程;(4)大别山地区ATC和DTR在过去70 a均呈现减弱趋势,且北坡的减弱趋势比南坡显著。鉴于现代观测记录时间短,未来仍需加强高分变率气候代用指标分析,将现代观测置于更长时间尺度的框架下进行评估,全面揭示气候变化特征和规律。 |
| 关键词: 大别山 气候时空变化 温度年循环 昼夜温差 突变分析 |
| DOI：10.7515/JEE2024026 |
| CSTR：32259.14.JEE2024026 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目 （42472251）；陕西省自然科学基础研究计划重点项目 （2024JC-ZDXM-17）；山东省专项经费（LSKJ202203300）；黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室开放基金（SKLLQG2323） |
| 英文基金项目: |
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| Analysis of spatial and temporal characteristics of climate change in the Dabie Mountains over the past 70 a |
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Mengke Bayier1，3，CAI Qiufang1，2，LIU Yu1，2，XIE Mei1，3，ZHOU Qiuyue1，3，ZHANG Hanyu1，3
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1. State Key Laboratory of Loess Science, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi' an 710061 , China ；2. National Observation and Research Station of Regional Ecological Environment Change and Comprehensive Management in the Guanzhong Plain, Shaanxi, Xi 'an 710061 , China ；3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 , China
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| Abstract: |
| Background, aim, and scope The Dabie Mountains (DBM), located on the eastern flank of the Qinling Mountains, is an important ecological barrier and water conservation area in Central China. Climate change in the DBM is closely linked to regional natural ecology and social-economic development. While previous studies have explored climate change characteristics in this region based on meteorological records and proxy data, systematic research on the spatial and temporal patterns of climate change, as well as the variations of the annual temperature cycle (ATC) and diurnal temperature range (DTR), remains limited. This study aims to comprehensively characterize the spatial and temporal patterns of climate change in the DBM over the past seven decades, with particular attention to altitudinal and slope variations, and to examine the long-term trends of ATC and DTR. Materials and methods Based on monthly climate data from 12 meteorological stations (Xiaogan, Shouxian, Fuyang, Gushi, Taihu, Anqing, Huoshan, Lu'an, Macheng, Dawu, Xinyang, Yingshan) in the DBM (30°—33°N, 113.72°—117.47°E) from AD 1951 to 2020, this study analyzed the characteristics of climate change across different altitudes and slopes using linear regression and the Mann-Kendall (M-K) nonparametric test. ATC and DTR analyses were further carried out to assess temperature variability patterns. Results Over the past 70 a, the warming rates of annual mean temperature (Tmean) were 0.199 ℃/(10a), 0.178 ℃/(10a) and 0.222 ℃/(10a) from low to high altitudes (≤50 m, (50, 100] m, (100, 150] m), respectively; the warming rates of annual maximum mean temperature (Tmax) were 0.151 ℃/(10a), 0.170 ℃/(10a) and 0.179 ℃/(10a); and the warming rates of annual minimum mean temperature (Tmin) were 0.254 ℃/(10a), 0.186 ℃/(10a) and 0.276 ℃/(10a), respectively. When it comes to slopes, the warming rates of Tmean were 0.145 ℃/(10a) (southern) and 0.209 ℃/(10a) (northern); Tmax were 0.190 ℃/(10a) and 0.136 ℃/(10a); Tmin were 0.125 ℃/(10a) and 0.262 ℃/(10a). Tmean on both slopes showed fluctuating upward trends. Specifically, the change of each temperature factor was relatively small before the 1990s, and then there was a clear upward trend. Seasonally, Tmean on the northern slope exceeded that on the southern slope across all four seasons, with warming rates ranking as spring>winter>autumn>summer. ATC and DTR showed a downward trend in the past 70 a. For precipitation, change rates of annual precipitation amount (P) across altitudes were 16.730 mm/(10a), 22.344 mm/(10a) and 3.947 mm/(10a) from low altitude to high altitude, respectively. On slopes, the rates were 13.449 mm/(10a) (northern) and 16.901 mm/(10a) (southern). Annual mean relative humidity declined significantly on both slopes at rates of −0.41%/(10a) (northern) and −0.38%/(10a) (southern). Mutation analysis revealed that Tmean on both slopes underwent a mutation in AD 1997, whereas precipitation showed no significant mutation. Discussion ATC and DTR, two key climate change indicators, have not been studied and discussed in depth. This study reveals an overall declining trend in ATC at 0.24 ℃/(10a), indicating a gradual reduction in the seasonal temperature contrast. Although this decline rate is lower than that in most middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, the regional differentiation of seasons is weakening. The overall DTR also showed a downward trend, with a more significant decrease on the northern slope than on the southern slope. Significant negative correlations exist between DTR and cloud cover on both slopes, suggesting that decreasing DTR coincides with slowly increasing cloud cover. The reason may be that the DBM is affected by the monsoon, and the temperature rises with more precipitation and sufficient water vapor supply, resulting in a slow upward trend in cloud cover. Conclusions (1) Temperature changes in the DBM demonstrate generally consistent spatial characteristics with an overall warming trend. The warming trend of Tmin is significantly higher than that of Tmean and Tmax, and the warming rate of Tmin is the most significant at the high altitudes (>100 m). In contrast, the warming rate on the northern slope is higher than that of the southern slope. On the seasonal scale, warming rates on both slopes are spring>winter>autumn>summer. The M-K mutation test revealed that annual Tmean on both slopes underwent a mutation in AD 1997. (2) Although total annual precipitation increases from the northern to the southern slope, the precipitation did not show long-term significant trends in terms of altitudinal gradients or slopes. (3) Over the past 70 a, annual mean relative humidity on both slopes showed a significant downward trend, indicating a drying trend in the DBM. (4) Both ATC and DTR in the DBM have shown a weakening trend over the past 70 a, and the weakening trend in the northern slope was more significant than that on the southern slope. Recommendations and perspectives Given the short duration of the meteorological data, it is still necessary to strengthen the analysis of high-resolution climate proxies in the future, and to evaluate modern observations under a longer time scale framework to fully reveal the characteristics and laws of climate change in the DBM. |
| Key words: Dabie Mountains spatial-temporal climate variations annual temperature cycle diurnal temperature range mutation analysis |
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